I was curious what the district magnitudes were for states voting on Super Tuesday. That is, how many delegates to the Democratic convention are chosen in each district? In addition to a variable number per district, there are (almost) always two statewide districts. Each district–congressional and statewide has a 15% threshold. It is this complexity that makes these systems a strategic voters’ nightmare, given that we still have four “serious” candidates that are active and may be viable in many states (and two who may hover near 15% in many states and districts).
So here is a rundown of the states that are voting today, thanks to the Green Papers. All states are included there; see links at the top of the page for upcoming states. Another excellent source is Frontloading HQ. The table shows the mean by district, the district minimum and maximum, and the two sets of statewide delegates.
State | CD Mean | Min CD | Max CD | At large | PLEO |
Ala. | 4.9 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 7 |
Calif. | 5.1 | 4 | 7 | 90 | 54 |
Colo. | 6.3 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 9 |
Maine | 8 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 3 |
Mass. | 6.6 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 12 |
Minn. | 6.1 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 10 |
N.C. | 5.5 | 3 | 9 | 24 | 14 |
Okla. | 4.8 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 5 |
Tenn. | 4.7 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 8 |
Tex.* | 4.8 | 2 | 10 | 49 | 30 |
Utah | 4.8 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 4 |
Vt. | 17 | ||||
Virg. | 5.9 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 13 |
* Texas elects its delegates in its 31 state senate districts instead of congressional districts; Vermont has only statewide delegates | |||||
For comparison of how these break down at district level, here is how it worked in South Carolina (Green Papers for the delegates; South Carolina State Election Commission for the vote percentages).
BIDEN | SANDERS | ||||||||||
District | Tot | Qual | Del | Tot | Alloc | Del | Tot | Alloc | Del | ||
Vote | Vote | Vote | Pct. | Vote | Pct. | ||||||
CD1 | 103,538 | 65,251 | 6 | 45,340 | 43.79 | 4.169 | 4 | 19,911 | 19.23 | 1.831 | 2 |
CD2 | 78,881 | 52,156 | 4 | 36,503 | 46.28 | 2.8 | 3 | 15,653 | 19.84 | 1.2 | 1 |
CD3 | 51,321 | 33,842 | 3 | 22,287 | 43.43 | 1.976 | 2 | 11,555 | 22.52 | 1.024 | 1 |
CD4 | 70,394 | 44,856 | 4 | 27,509 | 39.08 | 2.453 | 2 | 17,347 | 24.64 | 1.547 | 2 |
CD5 | 69,852 | 50,690 | 5 | 36,916 | 52.85 | 3.641 | 4 | 13,774 | 19.72 | 1.359 | 1 |
CD6 | 93,204 | 70,304 | 8 | 55,855 | 59.93 | 6.356 | 6 | 14,449 | 15.50 | 1.644 | 2 |
CD7 | 71,043 | 51,116 | 5 | 37,469 | 52.74 | 3.665 | 4 | 13,647 | 19.21 | 1.335 | 1 |
PLEO | 538,233 | 368,215 | 7 | 261,879 | 4.978 | 5 | 106,336 | 2.022 | 2 | ||
At-Large | 538,233 | 368,215 | 12 | 261,879 | 8.535 | 9 | 106,336 | 3.465 | 3 | ||
Total | 54 | 39 | 15 | ||||||||
Delegates |
For the record, the highest percentage Tom Steyer had was in district 3, where he had 14.55%. So close! (But the district elected only 3, so even 15% of the vote would have been insufficient.) He also had 13.06% in district 6. The closest Pete Buttigieg came was in district 1, where he had 12.55%. Elizabeth Warren’s best was only 9.29% (district 4).
If you get 15% of the vote in a congressional district with less than seven delegates, how many delegates do you get from that district? In other words, is the formula based on d’Hondt, Sainte-Lague or some other method?
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None of the standard formulas. They just take the number in the column marked “Alloc.” and round.
It would be nice if they used a tested off-the-shelf method like D’Hondt. Alas, no.
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See previous comments on US psephocyclexceuriscism, or reinventing the electoral wheel.
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