Last day

It is the last day of baseball season, and also the last day of the Jewish year, 5776.

Actually, it might not be the last day of baseball season–depending on what happens today. I am writing this just before all the “final” day’s games are about to begin. We could still have a tiebreaker game tomorrow in either league, and those count as regular season games. We could even have a game from the original 162-game regular season tomorrow–the Indians and Tigers will make up a rainout if either the Tigers remain in contention for a Wild Card slot or the Indians need the game to decide seeding in the Division Series. And, while the Mariners’ loss yesterday ended the dream of a four-way tie for the AL’s two Wild Card berths, a three-way tie is still possible. That scenario would mean the regular season make-up game tomorrow, followed by tiebreaker games Tuesday and Wednesday to eliminate one of the three. We’ve never had a three-way tie for a postseason berth. The Tigers (and their rivals) have to cooperate both today and tomorrow to get us there. Why not cling to the 2016 regular season just a little longer?

As for 5776, there is no question it is the last day, ready or not. We will get to mark the new year, Rosh HaShannah 5777, with first fruits from our land. The bowl shown here contains the first two pomegranates and jujubes of the season, picked today. The ‘Bartlett’ pear is also the first, though these need to ripen of the tree; I picked it several days ago, and it is just now about ready to enjoy.

29 Elul 5776 fruits//embedr.flickr.com/assets/client-code.js

The bowl also contains small bunches of each of the red grapes of our property. I believe they are, from left to right, Syrah, Barbera, and Zinfandel. They were planted by the previous owner, so I am going by the map of the vineyard, which is not the easiest to read. The grapes are not “first” fruits, as we have been harvesting them for several weeks and are near the end now.

The pomegranates are, at top, an Ambrosia. It has split, as pomegranates often do, and may not actually be ripe yet. The other is an unknown variety–we have three, planted by the previous owner, and for only Ambrosia did a tag survive–and should be ripe. Here are some more Ambrosia on the tree, which set heavily this year, while the second photo below shows the other one, with a few of its lighter set.

Ambrosia 2//embedr.flickr.com/assets/client-code.js

Pom 2Oct2016//embedr.flickr.com/assets/client-code.js

The jujubes (‘Jew Jew Be’) are the first ever to ripen here, on a tree planted two years ago. They are of the ‘GA866’ variety. Not the snappiest name, but a great-tasting variety that I also grew when we lived in the San Diego area. The tree has grown well; look closely at this photo and you might see the one remaining fruit. Yes, its first crop was just three fruits. One must start somewhere.

Jujube 2Oct2016//embedr.flickr.com/assets/client-code.js 

Shanah Tovah. May we have a sweet and fruitful 5777! And an exciting end of the (extended) regular season and postseason!

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The three divisions, two wild cards, format (2015 edition of a recurring rant)

Regular readers will know how much I dislike the current major-league baseball format of three divisions (which we have had for a while now) and (more recently) two wild card teams who face each other in a single game to decide which one goes on to the Division Series. Just last night I again heard an announcer praise how wonderful this format is; I think they must be under some sort of directive from on high to repeat that mantra.

I am still not sold, despite the fact that my team’s* only shot at the playoffs this year will be if it can win the second wild card. For supporters of the format, the AL is turning out this year the way they like it: three mediocre teams (Angels, Twins, and the team they currently are chasing, the Astros) are all in contention here in the last week. Also good for their cause, the Astros were only recently supplanted for the AL West division lead by the Rangers; a similar reversal took place just a while ago in the AL East (Blue Jays overtaking Yankees). That there is one race in the final week–really the only one still realistically alive in either league–and that teams recently dumped to second place in their divisions can look forward to, at best, winning a single game to advance, are points in favor of the current format. That is, if you do not object to mediocre teams fighting it out to potentially win just one game against a team that was their better by potentially 4+ games during the regular season. (As of today, the Yankees hold the first wild card, and thus the home field, by a 4.5 game lead over the second wild-card Astros.)

The NL is, however, a very different story. And not for the first time. The two wild card teams (Pirates, then Cubs) are currently separated by 5.5 games. Mets fans have to really love the current alignment of the divisions. Their team gets to be the first to clinch a division title… despite having the FIFTH best record in their league. (When the Dodgers lost a little later on Saturday, the Mets backed into fourth place by half a game.) It makes no sense that a team that–barring a significant closing of the gap in the final week–has finished so far behind the other wild card gets a single shot to knock out a superior team.

On the plus side, however, the second wild card may prevent the “injustice” of the league’s third place team (Cubs) having no playoff games while the fourth and fifth likely get crowned as division titlists. Even so, the way it is set up, one of the (current) top three teams would be eliminated in a single game, and either the fourth or fifth best (Dodgers, Mets) is guaranteed to be in the NLCS. I call this an institutional design fail!!

Although I still prefer my old two-divisions, two wild cards proposed format, with (or without) asymmetric series to privilege the division winners, I recognize that two wild cards are here to stay.** One small tweak I would like to see, however, is having the team with best record play in the first round the team among those still standing that had the worst record. Instead, it automatically plays the wild card, regardless of regular-season record. The principle ought to be to maximize the chance that the LCS pits the league’s two best, and in this year’s NL that is evidently going to be two teams from the Central, while one of the inferior teams is guaranteed to advance to the Division Series simply because it beat out weaker competition in its own division.

Whatever the outcome, October ball is almost here, and even dumb institutional design can’t ruin that!

_____

*The Angels, for those who are not regular readers. Regulars, of course, know this well.


** Besides, I have to admit that this format gave us last year one of the best games in years. The two-divisions, two wild-cards, also is not very workable with the realignment to 15 teams in each league, which took place at the same time as the second wild card was implemented. Given that this is a blog that is largely about institutional design, I invite readers to come up with a format that involves 15 total teams per league, five of which advance, but without a single-game playoff or the other anomalies I have identified. (An obvious solution of a wild-card playoff that goes longer gets little traction because giving the division winners a few days off is not generally considered to their advantage.)

The KC sweep and run differentials

The Kansas City Royals have completed a sweep of the Baltimore Orioles in the American League Championship Series. This follows the sweep of the Los Angeles Angels in the Division Series and the sensational one-game Wild Card playoff against the Oakland Athletics. Both the Angels and the Orioles had far superior regular-season records and significantly better run differentials during the season. The A’s had the league’s best run differential, despite their late collapse from a runaway division title to a ten-game deficit at the hands of division winner LAA. It really is hard to fathom how they are doing it. Royal blue smoke and mirrors? Best explanation I can offer.

In the just-concluded ALCS, the Royals continue to maximize wins out of few runs. In fact, their run differential is the smallest ever in a LCS sweep, by a good margin. In the series, they scored 18 runs, and the Orioles scored 12. They +6 differential beats the previous LCS record by three runs (1988 A’s over Red Sox, +9).

The +6 differential is reminiscent of the White Sox sweep of the 2005 World Series; as I noted at the time, only one prior World Series sweep had ever featured such a low differential (1950, Yankees over Phillies, also +6). Since 2005, there have been two more sweeps, but with typically large differentials (+19 in 2007 and +10 in 2012).

Obviously, the minimum possible differential in a four-game sweep is +4. So if you win with a +6, like the Royals just did, you are being exceptionally efficient in your run distribution.

Across all sweeps of best-of-seven World Series (19 of them), the average differential is +12.5. In the two leagues’ Championship Series, which have had this format since 1985 (when, incidentally, the Royals overcame a 3-1 deficit to win in seven), there have been six sweeps before this one. The average differential in those six was also +12.5. The Royals sweep was thus historic, setting a record for LCS and tying a record for all best-of-seven series. Too bad they scored that superfluous run in the top of the ninth in Game 2. They could have beaten the all-time best-of-seven sweep “efficiency” record.

(All data calculations by me, from Baseball Reference)

The double wild card era, year 2

As I type this, the Reds vs. Pirates wild card playoff is underway.

I lost count of the number of times over the past week that I heard some dutiful announcer say how the excitement of the final stretch is exactly what MLB intended in its brilliant decision to add a second wild card. Count me unimpressed.

The final weekend of the regular season featured, in the National League, a series between the Reds and Pirates. Yes, the same two teams that are playing in today’s first postseason game. The Pirates dominated, winning all three. As a result, they finished the season four games ahead of the Reds. For that, they earn… a chance to lose, in just one game, their spot in the Division Series to the Reds. That is what MLB has created: a second chance for the just-defeated.

By finishing even one game ahead of the Reds, the Pirates earned home-field for the single game. But that is not enough. Single-elimination is just not fair in baseball, and it is especially not fair when it is a game between two teams that finished games apart during the regular season. We saw this happen last year, too: the Cardinals were six games worse than the Braves during the regular season, but the Cardinals advanced by beating the Braves in the single wild-card game.

As for the excitement of that final weekend, it seems to me that a do-or-die series between the contenders for one wild card would have been pretty exciting! Maybe at least as exciting as a battle for home-field in their next match-up!

The AL, for the second year in a row, has a better experience with the two wild cards. The final weekend was indeed exciting, with three teams competing for the two spots, and two of them tying for the second one. (I have no problem with single-elimination when two teams tied through the regular season schedule.) The two teams now set for the AL wild card playoff were just a game apart in the standings. I’d still prefer that the Indians go right to the Division Series and not have a second chance for a team that finished behind them, but at least there was not a four or six game gap. Still, a final weekend involving three teams competing for one slot would have been pretty exciting, too! And the three-way tie that came very close to happening might have resulted in a more compelling tiebreaker had only one of them been able to emerge as a playoff team, rather than two of them playing each other again.

Now that one league has had two cases of multi-game gaps between its two wild card teams in two tries, it should be seen as a major indictment of the new system. But instead, it seems that MLB and the media are patting themselves on the collective back about what a great new system they have given us.

And, yes, I still prefer the various formatting ideas I proposed over three years ago.

WBC ’13

Thanks to Chris in a WBC ’09 thread for reminding me that we need a place to talk about this year’s World Baseball Classic!

The Taiwan-Korea game on 6 March featured the most boring 8th inning comeback you could ever see.

It seems the WBC could use some good institutional engineers to correct such situations.