Israeli election results

I’ve been silent on the Israeli election partly because I’ve been on the road, and partly because I’m pretty upset with the result. But having read a few overhyped op-eds and other posts, I figured it was time to offer a little perspective.

Lost in all the hyperbole are a few small facts:

(1) Likud gained primarily at the expense of parties further to the right. Consider that the combined Likud-Bayit Yehudi-Yisrael Beiteinu vote in this election is just short of 35%. In 2013, these parties amounted to 32.4%. Not exactly a massive swing to the right, as it is being portrayed. But Likud alone won just over 23% this time, whereas the blended list of Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu won about that much last time, while Bayit Yehudi fell from 9.1% to 6.4%. Strategic voting happens even under extreme PR!.

(2) This campaign never offered a realistic path to a center-left government. Remember, Bibi chose the timing of this election, and he’s not stupid or a big risk-taker.

(3) There wasn’t going to be a negotiated agreement on a Palestinian state in the next few years under a Herzog premiership anyway.

5 thoughts on “Israeli election results

  1. How would you interpret the result of the Joint List? Was the final result considered a disappointment (even if the sum did better than its various parts did in 2013)?

    • They about as well as the polls predicted they would, perhaps above average considering that some polls gave them 12. Considering the fact that they almost got 14 (had it not been for the soldiers’ votes), they may be considered to have done quite well.

      • The Joint (Arab) List did quite well, but this was one of those alleged “game changers” certain people were going on about that I never bought into. So that their result was barely more seats than the three component parties/alliances had won running separately last time is totally unsurprising to me.

  2. Pingback: Seats by bloc: Israel 2015 vs. 2013 | Fruits and Votes

  3. Pingback: Campaign effects vs. ‘fundamentals’–Israel 2015 edition | Fruits and Votes

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