Kosovo electoral system note

In light of our previous discussion about how Kosovo’s electoral system challenges our usual notion of what a “district” is, this note from Michael Gallagher‘s Election Indices is interesting.

I am not sure Michael has made the correct choice here–minority representation provisions are part of the electoral system, after all–but I am also not sure this is incorrect. The system really is challenging to classify and quantify. I note in particular his decision to count its assembly size–and therefore, its district magnitude, given there are no district divisions unless we count the ethnic reservation/guarantee as separate “districts”–as 100 before 2014 but as the full 120 since then. Here, for reference, are the indices he reports in the main part of the document:

The unusual nature of the system is what results in the effective number of seat-winning parties (NS) sometimes being higher than the effective number of vote-earning parties (NV), something that is otherwise rare, and certainly should not happen in a single-district nationwide proportional system. As I noted in the earlier discussion, in 2021 it was even the case that a single party list won a majority of votes, but did not win a majority of the full 120 seats. Because I assume all legislators are equal, and that a government needs a majority of the 120, and not just the 100, I think it is incorrect to treat assembly size as not including the 20 ethnic representatives. Gallagher’s data from 2014 do include them, and I think that should be the case for the earlier years as well.

The question of how to calculate the indices is indeed a vexing one. Gallagher very helpfully explains his choices and what would change if we use a different assumption about what “counts.” This allows the researcher using his valuable resource the ability easily to make his or her own decision. But this researcher still is not sure which decision to make with respect to this system!

I am not comfortable with the idea of counting these various ethnic guarantees as additional “districts” even though I see the case for it (which Henry made in a comment to the previous planting). That lack of comfort is not solely because these “districts” overlay the main one. That is, after all, the case of the Maori districts in New Zealand (each of which encompasses the territory of several general electorates). For that matter, it is also the case with any two-tier system. Rather, the conceptual difficulty is that a given party list may win seats in either component of the system–the general 100 or the set-aside for their ethnic group–if they qualify for additional seats beyond their ethnic group’s reservation/guarantee.

However we conceptualize the system, I believe all these parties should be taken into account in calculating the effective number of parties (votes and seats). The question of whether we count them for deviation from proportionality is less clear to me.

I think I need to count this as a non-simple system (by the criteria used on Votes from Seats), giving us a unique case of what could be called a single nationwide district PR system that is nonetheless complex. For countries whose electoral system has just a few ethnic set-asides (like Colombia or Croatia), I tend to ignore the reserved seats when thinking of whether they are “simple” districted or national-district systems. But when such seats are a sixth of the total, they are clearly a complicating feature, as the unusual outcomes reveal.

Kosovo 2021: A single-district electoral system that violates the rank-size principle

In the previous planting asking whether free-list PR violated my own definition of a “simple system, I mentioned the criterion of avoiding violation of the rank-size principle in allocation of seats to votes within district (see footnote 2). I later happened up a major example of violation of the rank-size principle: Kosovo in 2021!

It is a single district of 120 seats, but per Wikipedia:

The Assembly had [under the Constitutional Framework] 120 members elected for a three-year term: 100 members elected by proportional representation, and 20 members representing national minorities (10 Serbian, 4 Roma, Ashkali and Egyptian, 3 Bosniak, 2 Turkish and 1 Gorani). Under the new Constitution of 2008, the guaranteed seats for Serbs and other minorities remains the same, but in addition they may gain extra seats according to their share of the vote.

The result of this is that there are parties with as much as 2.5% of the votes but no seats (there is also a 5% legal threshold for non-ethnic parties), and parties with as little as 0.14% who have seats when somewhat larger ethnic parties do not. For instance, the United Roma Party of Kosovo has a seat with 1,208 votes while the Innovative Turkish Party, which I presume is an “ethnic” party, with 1,243 votes, has none. That would be because the two set-aside Turkish seats were won by the Turkish Democratic Party of Kosovo, which had almost 6,500 votes (0.75%).

Perhaps it is not a “single district” and we should think of each ethnic group’s set-aside representation as a distinct district in addition to the general constituency. But that is certainly not how I generally understand “district.” In any case, there is nothing “simple” about the provision or its impact on outcomes, particularly regarding the rank-size criterion.

In addition, these provisions result in the odd case of a party with a majority of the vote not getting a majority of the seats, which is certainly unusual for a proportional representation system!