With just over a week to go till the provincial assembly election of 7 June, polls in Ontario have shifted quite dramatically. Here is what it looked like, according to the CBC Poll Tracker, on 18 May: The Progressive Conservatives (PC) were well ahead in votes, and strongly favored to win a manufactured majority of seats […]
The eastern Canadian province of Canada has a history of anomalous results from its FPTP electoral system. Yet, despite the province’s record (of which I have written before–click “N.B.” above), a referendum planned on an MMP system was canceled three years ago–just after a spurious alternation! (In 2006, the incumbent Conservatives won a plurality of […]
In the case of T&T, the inherent tendency towards unexpected outcomes derives from a frequent over-representation of the second-largest party, relative to expectations based on “normal” performance of FPTP systems.
UPDATED below Well, so the party that appointed an Independent Commission that recommended MMP, scheduled a referendum for May, 2008, then called yesterday’s election, was reelected. Yes, it was. The voters rewarded it with a plurality of the vote (47.7% to 47%), and a higher share than in 2003. But hold on just a moment. […]
With a three-party system despite plurality elections, Nova Scotia looks like a good candidate for PR. But my research shows it is not three-partism, per se, that generates serious reform processes. Rather, it is underrepresentation of the second party and close elections that do so.
The New Brunswick Commission on Electoral Reform has issued its report, “A pathway to an inclusive democracy”. There are many recommendations regarding changes to voting procedures in the proposal, but those that focus directly on the electoral system are as follows (quoting form p. 19): The government enhance the voting system by moving to Preferential Ballots. […]
The Pyrennean microstate of Andorra held a parliamentary election in March. The principality’s General Council consists of 28 members elected by a majoritarian mixed-member system (MMM): half is elected proportionally from national party lists (largest remainders; the threshold is one Hare quota – 7.15%) and the other half, in parallel, by list plurality (party with […]
With the UK general election three weeks away, Chris Hanretty of the electionforecast.co.uk team offers a comparison of their forecast with those of two other academic teams, ElectionsEtc.com and Polling Observatory. The forecasts must estimate a nationwide vote share for each party, and then devise a means of projecting these figures on to the 650 individual plurality (FPTP) contests […]
The Canadian province of New Brunswick held a general election on 22 September. Notwithstanding some problems with the vote-tabulation system, and several lead changes during the night, the Liberals won by a good margin: 42.7% of the votes against 34.7% for the Progressive Conservatives (PC). The seats split 27-21, giving the Liberals 55.1% of the […]
The strategy of parties, especially smaller ones, in multiparty systems is a particular interest of mine (a statement that will surprise no one). Here are a few interesting examples from the current New Zealand campaign. One area of interest is about… interests. What interest groups do small parties cultivate for support? “Greens want to spend […]
Quebec’s National Assembly (i.e. provincial) election is 4 September. It is a three-way race, which is always interesting–and potentially anomaly-generating–under plurality (first-past-the-post) rules. The incumbent is a majority government of the Liberal Party, re-elected most recently in 2008, with the Parti Quebecois (PQ) as its main opponent. The newly created party in the mix is […]
Japan’s PM Naoto Kan made it official, and resigned today. His Democratic Party of Japan will choose a successor next week. The successor will be Japan’s sixth since the departure of Junichiro Koizumi in 2006. That’s a lot of PMs in a short time. Why does Japan have such short-lived PMs? In one regard, maybe […]
The implosion of the Irish government, and the main party in the governing coalition, Fianna Fail, has been quite a spectacle. After narrowly surviving an internal leadership battle, Taoiseach (PM) Brian Cowen saw five of his own party’s cabinet ministers resign. Shortly thereafter, Cowen himself resigned–as party leader. It is very unusual in parliamentary democracies […]
The legislature is renamed the Plurinational Legislative Assembly. MMP remains in the first chamber. In the Senate the number of seats per department will go from 3 to 4.
Eleven weeks from election to inauguration of a new president and nine weeks for congress. That is longer than in almost any country, and it is much too long.