So election day is here already in the Canadian federal general election of 2021. The election was called in mid August, but otherwise would not have been due till 2023.
The final CBC Poll Tracker has the nationwide votes really close, at 31.5% to 31.0%, the Liberals being barely in front. The NDP is on 19.1%. For comparison, in 2019, these parties’ vote percentages were 33.1, 34.4, and 15.9, respectively. Note that the Conservatives led in the votes, but the Liberals led in seats (157 to the Conservative’s 121 and NDP’s 24). The Poll Tracker for the other parties has the following vote percentages (with last election’s results in parentheses) has the PPC on 7.0 (1.6), Bloc Quebecois on 6.8 (7.7), and Greens 3.5 (6.5).
The Poll Tracker’s seat projections currently have Liberals at 155, Conservatives 119, NDP 32, BQ 31, Green 1, PPC 0. The “likely” range for the Liberals extends to 168, which would be two seats short of the majority that PM Justin Trudeau was seeking by calling this election. If they have a really good result and there is some poling error or last-minute changes of minds (for those who have not already voted early), they might yet make it. On the other hand, the likely range for the party extends as low as 121 in the projection, while that for the Conservatives extends from 105 to 143. It would not be a surprise to see the NDP’s actual vote and seat numbers drop from the projection–their final “likely” range is 24 to 48 (indicating they also have some significant potential upside). They have been declining a little bit in projections in recent days, and they came short of the final projection in 2019.
So, unless there is a surprise, the results will not be fundamentally different from the last time. That would be good news for the Seat Product Model (SPM), as the projected outcome is an effective number of seat-winning parties (NS) around 2.84. For an assembly the size of Canada’s, with M=1, the expected result is NS=2.64. In 2019, the actual result was 2.79, a small excess over the model expectation. Additionally, the SPM expects the largest party to have 48.3% of the seats (163), and the projected outcome of this election is 45.9%, also a small deviation from the expectation, albeit a potentially consequential one politically. On the effective number of vote-earning parties, the current poll tracker projection works out to about 4.1! That is far above expectation. The SPM would expect 3.22; as was already the case in 2019 and indeed earlier, but even more so now, Canadian voters are not playing along with the FPTP game anymore, even if the translation of their votes into seats is still giving them the parliamentary party system expected for FPTP, given their assembly size.
News flash: Canada still needs a new electoral system! Only with some kind of PR will they get the parliamentary party system closer to the one they vote for, instead of the the SPM says they “should” have.
As results come in, or as you have any questions or thoughts about this election, here is the “open planting hole.”
Please be advised that I will not be monitoring it after about my local sundown, as the holiday of Sukkot starts tonight. But the virtual orchard is always open.