One thought on “And now there will be a Spain 2019b

  1. For some time now PP has been pushing for a pre-election coalition with C’s or Vox (or both), along the lines of the Navarra Suma (NA+) UPN-PP-C’s alliance, which topped the poll in the aforementioned region last April, and again in the regional election last May. In fact, PP even registered the name “EspaƱa Suma” in anticipation of reaching an agreement with either or both parties. However, neither C’s nor Vox are biting, at least for the time being. Moreover, PP leaders in Galicia – which holds a regional election next year – appear to have little appetite for a coalition with C’s, not least because the Galician PP remained well ahead of C’s last April. Meanwhile, leaders of the Basque PP – which lost all its seats last April – have made it clear they are opposed to any coalition involving Vox, which won only 2.2% of the vote in the Basque Country last April (mostly because the latter party’s anti-devolution stance is extremely unpopular in the region); the Basque Country also holds a regional election next year.

    It should also be noted that NA+ was possible in Navarre mainly because it was structured around the regionalist UPN, which in the recent past has proved to be by far the largest of the three parties: in the 2015 regional election, UPN won 27.4% running alone, while PP fared poorly with just 3.9% and C’s was even further behind with 3%.

    At any rate, PP’s rationale for a right-wing coalition stems largely from the purported seat gains for such an alliance had its constituent parties run together last April. However, back in 2016 very similar arguments led IU to join forces with Podemos, but in the end the two parties running together failed to reach their combined 2015 vote percentages. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if in the end PP fields a coalition ticket, even if it’s essentially PP by another name, plus a few dissidents from C’s, Vox or other parties. I’m not saying that will necessarily take place, but if it does happen just remember you read it here first.

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