Alabama scenarios

If it is possible, under Alabama election law, for Luther Strange or another Republican to run as an independent, I do not know which of the following is the likelier scenario.

Note: the winner is decided by plurality (most votes, not requiring more than half).

(1) Moore’s support bleeds away to the write-in, who wins a majority (or nearly so) in the deep-red state.

(2) The write-in splits the Republican vote, and Moore has sufficient dead-end support that won’t defect, letting Jones (the Democrat) win with ~40%.

(3) The write-in attracts lots of voters away from Jones who were only considering voting for him as the not-Moore, as well as from Moore himself, such that the write-in wins, but it is a close three-way contest.

One additional consideration: it is pretty late to organize a write-in campaign, and scenarios 1 & 3 both assume that it is possible to get it off the ground, and get voters aware of what they have to do.

I still think the most likely scenario is Moore wins, and sits in the Senate (until such time as the Senate, by 2/3, might vote to expel him).

6 thoughts on “Alabama scenarios

  1. Mac Watson, business man and moderate Republican, and Libertarian Party candidate Ron Bishop are apparently already write-in candidates. My guess is Watson will start getting more attention, but I wonder if there could also be a coordination problem with multiple write-ins, which could then benefit Jones?

    • LMAO he was banned from a shopping mall for being a creep to teen girls while he was in his 30s. “Innocent”

  2. Odd why does the US have write ins? Does every US state have this option? Do other countries as well? It seems to be used very rarely. Any US states recently abolish the write in? Should it be?

    The problem with write ins, then nobody will win a majority, why go through the trouble of these round offs.

    • Actually, one US Senator, Lisa Murkowski, did win with write ins after losing the Republican primary.

      Its a viable option for Strange or for whoever the Republicans really want to run. But really their best strategic move is to move the election date back. Moore is still likely to win, since the allegations are quite spurious (they are really old, and if you believe all of him he did nothing illegal).

      The subtext is that the GOP establishment does not want Moore in the Senate since he will be a loose cannon and his views will subtract votes from the other GOP candidates every time he appears on TV. I’m not sure if the hit isn’t coming from Republican Party operatives instead of Democratic party operatives. The most the Democrats get out of this is maybe one extra vote in the Senate for three years.

    • This is not a runoff. Alabama has runoffs for the party primaries, if not candidate obtains over 50%. But this final election for the seat will be decided by plurality.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.