France 2017–Honeymoon Election time!

Today is round three of France’s four-round national elections. As I said back on 23 April, everything followed from the first round, i.e., when the final two presidential candidates were set. At that time, I projected Macron’s party to get a plurality, with around 29% of the vote, in the first round of the assembly election (today’s vote). I also added, “maybe more!”

Things were progressing more or less as expected as Macron assembled his pro-presidential party and appointed his choice of premier and cabinet, effectively saying to voters, here is the government I want you to approve.

An assembly majority for La Republique En Marche to support the government, following runoffs in a week in most districts, is easily within reach.

That is at once remarkable–the party nominated its candidates within the last month solely to support a presidency that looked unlikely as recently as several months ago–and utterly predictable–to those of us who do logical models of electoral system and presidential effects.

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5 thoughts on “France 2017–Honeymoon Election time!

  1. First projections (I gather not an exit poll but based on samples of the actual vote, as in the presidential election):
    LREM (Macronists): 32%
    LR (Republicans): 22%
    FN (Front National): 14%
    LFI (far-left): 11%
    PS (Socialists):10%

    You read that right, the Socialists are in 5th (!)

  2. Interestingly enough, only one seat ended up as a three-way race in the second round. That presumably is a factor of the lower turnout, given that the average actual vote share required to hit the 12.5% threshold for entering the second round increased from 21.8% in 2012 to 25.7% this year. I think there was also a substantial increase in fragmentation (though this is a little hard to determine given the confusing nature of French political labels).

  3. Massive majority here, funny that the French have little to no political drama compared to the English. Whoever would have expected this turn of events. Will this massive majority mean that Macron will be able to reform France’s economy? Will he be successful, and if not populism isn’t going away? Will it also lead to some form of PR for the French National Assembly? It is shocking how disproportionate a 2 round system is.

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