France 2017, presidential first round

Because readers have come to expect a space for discussion, and I always enjoy my readers’ discussion. And because that day is here at last!

Be wary of any claims re leaked exit polls. But the real results (as well as the official exit poll*) will start coming in soon after this comment thread opens up.

* Actually not an exit poll, but a sample of actual results.

9 thoughts on “France 2017, presidential first round

  1. I suspect it will surprise few or no readers that I am rooting for Macron. As far as runoff partners, well, I can’t exactly root for any of them. But I guess I’d prefer it be Melenchon, only because it would be really nice to see Le Pen dumped in the first round. And Fillon, with all his scandals (and retrograde social-policy attitudes), hardly deserves to remain in the running.

    As far as I know, all the polls of runoff scenarios have shown Macron would defeat any of the other contenders, and Le Pen would lose to any of them. The only pairing that some polls show could be somewhat close is Fillon-Le Pen, which is yet another reason for hoping Fillon loses today, in case Le Pen does not. And I will be somewhat surprised if Le Pen does not get in.


  2. Would anyone care to guess how voters would rank the main candidates, if given the chance, so as to predict the winner under AV?


    • Well, I will make such a “prediction”. The winner under AV would be Macron. Even if he had finished third in first (sole) references (which is still possible, but now seems very unlikely).


    • I am only a sample of one, but I would vote 1 Macron 2 Melenchon 3 Fillon with a slight temptation to vote 1 Melenchon 2 Macron 3 Fillon.


  3. While we (or many of us, anyway) are busy breathing sighs of relief, keep in mind that candidates who want out of the EU combined for over 40% of the vote. And the two main long-established parties for 27% or so.

    The assembly elections will be interesting! With the UK and France, I had better clear my schedule for June.


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