The audio-slides version of Li and Shugart (2016) is now available!
As previously announced, the publication details and abstract are as follows:
The Seat Product Model of the effective number of parties: A case for applied political science
Yuhui Li, Matthew S. Shugart
Electoral Studies 41, March 2016, pp. 23–34.
This paper extends Taagepera’s (2007) Seat Product Model and shows that the effective number of seat-wining parties and vote winning parties can both be predicted with institutional variables alone, namely district magnitude, assembly size, and upper-tier seat share. The expected coefficients are remarkably stable across different samples. Including the further information of ethnic diversity in the models hardly improves the estimate of the effective number of parties, and thus the institutions-only models are preferable on the grounds of parsimony and the applicability to electoral-system design or “engineering”.