It was not so long ago that the Canadian election looked like it was going to produce a close three-way result. However, the NDP–which led as recently mid-September–has now fallen to a very distinctly third-place position. Just like that old Canadian party system, we might say. Moreover, the Liberals have been steadily gaining. See Eric Grenier’s poll-tracker at CBC.
Assuming there is not some late change in trends, it seems the main thing we now have to ask is whether the NDP will further bleed support such that there is a majority Liberal government. Or are we looking at a minority? Just recently, the seat projection (same page as the prior link) has finally nudged the Liberal Party within striking distance of majority territory, and the Conservatives out of it, unless they have their best possible result (“possible” under the terms of the poll-aggregating and seat-projection tools Grenier uses).
If the race tightens again and/or the NDP retains a strong third place, a plurality reversal is also possible. The Conservatives may do a little better at translating their votes into seats, so in a close election they could end up first in seats–though most likely not a majority–even if second in votes.
I will leave (mostly) for the comment thread, or post-election discussion, what the potential outcomes might mean for the chances of electoral reform. I will say, however, that I suspect a Liberal majority is better for those prospects than a Liberal minority dependent on NDP support. And, no, I do not think a coalition is likely, even if there is no majority, although if in such a situation the Liberals were larger, the odds of a coalition government would be somewhat greater (but still quite low!) than if it were the Conservatives ahead.
We are in the final phase of the Canadian campaign. It should be interesting to watch!