10 thoughts on “Greek election, 2015b

  1. Greece’s Ministry of the Interior has live September 2015 election results in English here. With just under a quarter of the vote tallied, SYRIZA is topping the poll once more, but once more short of an overall parliamentary majority, while the Independent Greeks are polling just above the three percent threshold. Other than for the possible addition of the Union of Centrists (also polling just above the three percent threshold), it would seem the new Hellenic Parliament won’t be that much different from the one elected last January…

    • My website’s Greece page now has the results of yesterday’s election there, also available in CSV format. For good measure, I also updated the January 2015 results to bring them in line with the updated figures published last March on the Ministry of the Interior’s site, and to list the results for the Union of Centrists (EK) on the January election separately from those for other parties.

      One detail that called my attention was the outcome for Popular Unity, and not just because the party’s name immediately brought to mind the ill-fated Unidad Popular government of Salvador Allende in Chile (in fact, given what happened one could say that the SYRIZA dissidents choose poorly, to paraphrase a line from a famous motion picture scene). Now, what I find rather interesting is that compared to other Western European countries that have nationwide percentage thresholds in the whole-digits range, Greece seems to have a far higher frequency of “near misses,” that is of parties that fall short of the threshold by less than one percent. Since 1996, I’ve counted ten such instances in Greece (including three in May 2012 alone); the country that comes closest after Greece is Denmark with five “near misses” since 1990 (two of them that very year). However, I’m at a loss for an explanation as to why this happens more frequently in Greece than elsewhere in Western Europe.

      • Interesting point on the thresholds. I suppose the answer for why near misses are more common in Greece might simply be that the party system is so much more volatile (for whatever reason). Then again, so is Israel’s, and near misses are relatively rare there.

  2. The most striking for me: despite all the events since January, percentages stayed almost exactly the same.

  3. Golden Dawn runs third and is the only party to make gains since January. Gosh, austerity leads to radical rightwing gains. Whodathunk it? I mean there is no historical experience in Europe of austerity politics empowering the extreme right. Oh wait…

  4. Greece’s Reinforced Proportional Representation means that the 2nd largest party is substantially somewhat under representative according to the popular vote. All the other parties especially the smaller ones third largest below are a little bit under representative.

    • Let’s not call it “Reinforced Proportional Representation”, given that what is reinforced is not proportionality, but the lead of the plurality party. I have taken to calling it “bonus-adjusted proportional representation”, although one could quibble with even this more accurate term, given that the PR comes after the bonus. Is it even a member of the PR family? Not clearly, as it gives such a strong premium on being the largest; notice how much PASOK collapsed once SYRIZA became a viable government-leading party.

      • I thought we had settled on BAPR, but I agree the ‘PR’ part is misleading (in my opinion a no less misleading than ‘Reinforced PR’ as the latter suggests not that PR is ‘strengthened’ *as* PR but modified so as to be reinforced against its own (perceived) negative tendencies of fragmentation and instability).

        Bonus-based majoritarian?
        List-majoritarian / list-bonus?
        PR-adjusted majoritarian?

        Assured-majority system? (only for Italy)

  5. I’ve got to hand it to Tsipras. How many leaders totally sell out their party platform, spurn a referendum result, suffer a significant party split, and then end up winning almost the same vote share (and be able to form the same coalition) as before all those events?

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