Ontario 2014 election result

The Liberals wound up winning a majority in the Ontario provincial election. The party won 59 seats (of 107) on 38.6% of the vote. In second was the Progressive Conservative (PC), 27 seats on 31.3%. The New Democrats (NDP) won 21 seats–the same number they had at dissolution–on 23.8%.

I’d say the Liberals seriously outsmarted the NDP by putting up a fairly progressive budget but getting the NDP to trigger an election rather than back the budget.

Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak has resigned. I wonder if NDP leader Andrea Howarth can hold on. There was a good deal of dissension publicized during the campaign over the leadership’s strategy.

The Green Party again did not win a seat, despite its best electoral showing so far, 4.8% of the vote.

9 thoughts on “Ontario 2014 election result

  1. This was actually the *second* best showing for the Greens. They broke 8% in 2007 by running hard on the issue of integrating the public and Catholic school systems (when the PCs were in favor of extending the religious school system to other religions, and the Libs and NDP supported the status quo).

    • Thank you, Joffré. You are correct. I had thought the party had done better in the past, and I committed the grave error of going by something I had read in an account by a journalist with a too-short memory.

      In 2007, the Ontario Greens also came in second in one contest. In the 2014 campaign, at times the threehundredeight.com projection showed them winning one. But I do not think they finished higher than a distant third in any riding this time.

      In Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, the riding where the Green candidate got 35% in 2007, their candidate this time came in fourth, with just 8.8% this time.

  2. From the voters’ point of view, this election was all about their rejection of Tim Hudak’s platform. In the process, “strategic” (tactical) voting against Hudak elected a government supported by less than 39% of voters, with an unexpected manufactured majority of MPPs. For the next four years, it has no legislative accountability to representatives of the majority of voters. Voters for parties with geographic strongholds elect governments with false majorities, thanks to the seat bonus from their strongholds.

  3. If I were an Ontario NDP supporter, I’d be mad at my party’s leadership for turning a situation in which they held the balance of power into one in which there is a return to manufactured-majority government.

    And, yes, had the PCs had a more moderate leader and platform, they probably would have won at least a plurality of seats.

    As it was, the result is a pretty typical FPTP outcome. And the third party is the one falling back on its geographic strongholds.

    • You’re assuming there was a better alternative. We will not know, until the memoirs are written, whether Kathleen Wynne, upon her election as leader, offered a coalition or accord to the NDP. One of the terms would have had to be a judicial inquiry into the gas-plant-cancellation scandal, and considering how Wynne ended up apologizing so profusely about that in the TV debates, maybe that would have been better for her too. But ostensibly she refused. The NDP was getting heavily criticized for propping Wynne up with no return. A year ago, they modestly bargained for three promised improvements to the budget — none of which were implemented. So they were locked in an accord role with no accord and no dismount strategy. Wynne would have asked for a mandate sometime this year, and Horwath would have had to explain why she had tolerated the government so long. With the new 15 seats about to be added to the electoral map, Wynne would have been lucky to win half of them, so she would likely have been afraid to wait until next year.

  4. “I’d say the Liberals seriously outsmarted the NDP by putting up a fairly progressive budget but getting the NDP to trigger an election rather than back the budget.”

    The Liberals got ten more seats and a a majority government. The NDP got the same number of seats they had at dissolution, and four additional seats and an increase in their voting percentage from the previous election, plus their negotiating position in future legislatures with no overall majority is strengthened, because they showed that though their withdrawing support from a government that is essentially blowing them off will not bring down that government, doing so won’t cause the NDP any harm.

    The Tories lost a bunch of seats and their leader, and are about 4% away from being overtaken from the NDP.

    You would think that the Liberals and the NDP planned this.

  5. Wilfredday said: ” Wynne would have been lucky to win half of them, so she would likely have been afraid to wait until next year.”

    Given that the PCs didn’t win any seats in cities larger than Sarnia (80,000), and the new seats will concentrate around the Toronto area, the Liberals may have been able to win a majority with an even smaller share of the vote.

    • The 15 new seats include the following seats likely to have gone PC: Barrie—Innisfil, Carleton, Flamborough—Glanbrook, Hastings—Lennox and Addington. Likely Milton. Not sure about Kitchener South—Hespeler. Some toss-ups the Liberals might have won unexpectedly like King—Vaughan, maybe Aurora—Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill, and several other marginals that are heavily Conservative federally. Not a gamble Wynne would have looked forward to.

      • When I read your original statement again, I think you are right that Wynne might have preferred to go before the new seats get added.But it is correct to say that using the actual 2014 results, she would have gained more seats than the PCs. Wynne could (or should) never have expected the Tories to do so poorly.

        The Ontario PCs now need at least 32% province-wide to pick up many of the suburban seats the Conservatives win federally.

        Projecting the 2014 results at the poll level onto the new electoral map, the PCs would have picked up one new seat in Eastern Ontario. They would have lost the extra seats in Barrie, Kitchener, etc.

        King-Vaughan and Aurora-Oak Ridges-RH are not heavily Conservative/former PC federally since 1984. They have been a battleground since O’Brien and Bevilacqua nearly tied in 1988 (with both eventually going to the Commons, although not at the same time). Carleton on the other hand is heavily Tory, where they could win with a monkey wearing a blue tie. Oh wait, they do – another MPP believes that AGW is a hoax (not just untrue, but a hoax!)

        I’m interested in knowing your predictions for the 2015 federal and 2018 provincial elections. My bet is that Ontario doesn’t go blue until the Conservatives lose federally.

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