The general election in Ontario is about three weeks away. The current polling aggregate and seat estimate at ThreeHundredEight are interesting.
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The current projection suggests the distinct possibility of a plurality reversal. Conservatives are projected to have a small lead in votes over the Liberals (35.8% to 34.3%), but Liberals are ahead in the seat projection, 44-41. NDP is on 22 seats, from 23.4% of the (estimated) vote.
Current party standings are Lib 48, PC 37, NDP 21, with the NDP having gained a net four since the 2011 election via by-election wins.