Just some Crimea, Ukraine, voting turnout figures for perspective…
2004 runoff (Yushchenko defeats Yanukovych): 1.16 million.
2007 national legislative election (Yanukovych’s Party of Regions wins a plurality, though only 34%, nationwide): <850k.
2010 presidency (Yanukovych beats Tymoshenko): I can’t find raw number of votes, but turnout in Crimea is <50%, lowest in Ukraine.
Keep these less-than-impressive trends in Crimea voting turnout, even as Putin’s allies gain more power over time, in mind as Crimea’s “referendum” approaches.