The PRI’s stability

Aside from 2006, not much change over time. What has changed is the relative ability of one of the other parties to consolidate enough of the anti-PRI vote to win a plurality.

Year, Deps, Pres
1997, 39.1, —
2000, 36.9, 36.1
2003, 40.8, —
2006, 28.2, 22.3
2009, 43.7, —
2012, 38.0, 38.2
(PRI-PVEM from 2003)

That’s a mean of 37.8% (for Deputies).

So the answer to my question before the election–how big will the PRI’s comeback be?–is, not that big. Just a regression to its 15-year mean.

Data are from the IFE website, following the links for respective years and institutions.

One thought on “The PRI’s stability

  1. One of the few fans of the Mexican mixed system, the 2008 Uwais Commission in Nigeria, is still being discussed.

    It proposed 468 seats of which 23% (108) would be filled by a parallel proportional system, with a cap: If a political party wins 70% of the 360 FPTP seats it should be excluded from benefiting from the Proportional Representation. That would be 252 of the 468 seats, about 54%. The Commission does not explain this number, but presumably it is intended to ensure a majority with a safety margin.

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