The latest release of the Nanos daily tracking poll (which uses a three-day rolling average) in advance of the Canadian general election (2 May) shows some interesting regional dynamics.
The national trends continue to show the Conservatives well ahead but fairly flat since early April, at 39% of the vote. The Liberals are slipping slightly, now on 28% and the NDP is up a bit since the debates, at just under 20%. Really, not much has changed at the national level recently, but the regional picture is a different story.
In Quebec in the last few days, the NDP has surged into second place (25%) while the Conservatives have fallen to fourth place (17%). The BQ is on only 32.5%, well below where it was at the 2008 election (38.1%). The NDP figure is about double where the party was at the last election.
In Ontario, the NDP lags far behind its national share, with just under 13%, and that’s well below its 18.2% result at the last election.
Also of note is the NDP’s recent rise in polling in British Columbia, almost in a tie for second with the Liberals (although the NDP remains about where it was at the last election, 26.1%). The margins of error in the regional breakdowns are fairly large (on the order of 6% or more), so caveats in order.
A PDF report of the poll is available from Nanos. (Thanks to Wilf for the tip.)