Canada poll trends

The latest release of the Nanos daily tracking poll (which uses a three-day rolling average) in advance of the Canadian general election (2 May) shows some interesting regional dynamics.

The national trends continue to show the Conservatives well ahead but fairly flat since early April, at 39% of the vote. The Liberals are slipping slightly, now on 28% and the NDP is up a bit since the debates, at just under 20%. Really, not much has changed at the national level recently, but the regional picture is a different story.

In Quebec in the last few days, the NDP has surged into second place (25%) while the Conservatives have fallen to fourth place (17%). The BQ is on only 32.5%, well below where it was at the 2008 election (38.1%). The NDP figure is about double where the party was at the last election.

In Ontario, the NDP lags far behind its national share, with just under 13%, and that’s well below its 18.2% result at the last election.

Also of note is the NDP’s recent rise in polling in British Columbia, almost in a tie for second with the Liberals (although the NDP remains about where it was at the last election, 26.1%). The margins of error in the regional breakdowns are fairly large (on the order of 6% or more), so caveats in order.

A PDF report of the poll is available from Nanos. (Thanks to Wilf for the tip.)

4 thoughts on “Canada poll trends

  1. On the other hand, the aggregation of several polls at 308.com shows the opposite of Nanos for the national trend of recent days: NDP falling and Liberals rising. Conservatives also rising.

    • Thanks, Vasi. Actually the link in my own comment above was to “308” and it’s been on the blogroll for a while. But I should have made an explicit mention of it, because many F&V readers would be sure to find it interesting.

  2. It’s looks like another Conservative Minority government. So the Conservatives win a few more measly seats, so close to a majority, but so far away from it. That is the problem with English speaking countries (Canada, UK, and Australia except NZ because they are use to this by now because of MMP and Ireland because of STV), the news media and everyone gets in a tizzy when a party does not win a majority. They act as if it is the end of the world, and the country can’t function. At least, there are checks and balances with minority and coalition governments more so than with a single party government with a majority.

    Even if the Liberals and the NDP do form a coalition, it is going to be a minority coalition between them with the Bloc Quebecois propping them up. Why do Canadians get so melodramatic over this? They act as if this is the end of Canada.

    It’s too bad Canada does use the Alternative Vote, then the Liberals and NDP could do preference swamping and win a majority without having to deal with Bloc Quebecois.

    Is it possible for the Green Party to win a seat?

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