Greetings from sunny Exeter!
This morning’s check of UK Polling Report, my first in a few days, turned up this note in the prediction part of the page: “Hung parliament, Labour short by 39.”
The projection has been for a “hung” (please, “representative” or “balanced”) parliament for quite some time, but with the Tories ahead in seats. The current projection has Labour on 287 seats to Conservatives’ 262, and LibDem 70. This despite the Conservatives still being ahead by five points in the polling aggregate, albeit with only 35% of the vote. The spike in LibDem support in the Voting Intention graph, to 24%, is impressive!
The projection is based on a uniform swing, which of course there will not be. Even with that caveat, the projection sure is an eye-opener.
The three-way leaders’ debate last Thursday, the first-ever debate in a UK campaign, really seems to have shaken things up, at least for now. The LibDem leader broke through the two-party din, and by all accounts (including my own at the time) “won” the contest. Various polls since have put the LibDems in second place, and at least one has the perennial third-place force in the lead.
Two more debates the next two Thursdays, and then the voting. Good time to be in the UK!