The next storm

Wow, this sounds impressive (despite the caveat at the end).

In a winter forecast to be drier and warmer than normal due to the moderate, but strengthening, La Niña, we need all we can get when we can get it. And a “classic Pacific storm” spinning off a low over Kamchatka would be most welcome.

Quotation from forecast discussion relegated to inside branch.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
850 AM PST SUN DEC 2 2007

[…] AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
TRACK EAST OUT OF A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER KAMCHATKA…AND IT WILL
BRING A 996 MB SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THERE WITH IT. THERE IS NO
BLOCKING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC…AND N-S HEIGHT/TEMP GRADIENTS ARE PRETTY STRONG RIGHT NOW IN THAT AREA…SO THE MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH BRINGING A CLASSIC PACIFIC STORM TO CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEK. THE TIMING FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR SOMETIME IN THE MIDDAY FRIDAY TO SATURDAY FRAME WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SECOND WAVE ON THE BACK SIDE…OR THE LOW EVEN CLOSING OFF TO OUR WEST…TO PROLONG THE PRECIP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLY NEXT WEEK PART IS MODELED QUITE VARIABILITY…BUT THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY STUFF REALLY IS NOT…SO I WILL PROBABLY DO THE RARE THING AND INCREASE POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FROM THE MTNS W TO THE COAST FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE DESPITE IT BEING DAY 6. 12Z GFS IS ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE WITH QPF WITH WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH TOTALS…AND OF COURSE OROGRAPHICS COULD BE GREATER DUE TO VIGOROUS SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SORTS OF NORTH PACIFIC STORMS. WITH PRECIP QUITE LIKELY BEING HEAVIEST ALONG A FRONT…THE BURN AREAS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY DUE TO FLASH FLOOD/MUDSLIDE THREATS.

WHILE ANY DAY 5/6 FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE…THE MODELS ARE IN GREATER AGREEMENT THAN NORMAL FOR THAT FAR OUT. STAY TUNED.

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