Jamaica: Updated count

In an updated count, the Jamaica Labour Party’s lead has widened by two seats. It now appears to have won 33 to the People’s National Party’s 27. One of the seats that changed hands as a result of a recount now shows a JLP lead of 9 votes!

The interactive map of the outcome is interesting, inasmuch as it shows there is not a really stark regional divide. My quick perusal shows only four districts that are not bordered by at least one district won by the other party. Three of those are on the far western tip of the island (all PNP) and the other (also PNP) is on the edge of Kingston. Even in the capital area, of the 13 districts in the most densely populated area, the PNP won just 7.

The nationwide votes percentages have not changed, even out to two decimal places, as more votes have been added to the count and individual districts have been recounted: 50.14 to 49.77.

The revised count means that the second-place PNP is under-represented, relative to the seat-vote equation’s estimate, by 4.4 percentage points (3 seats, or 2.6 if you want the decimal-point estimate). Not much, in other words, but technically enough to make the difference between a tied parliament and one with a majority that, while narrow, is enough that a single absence from its caucus on any given day won’t threaten the government’s business.

It’s a very close result, but a majority voted for the alternation that will now occur. If all FPTP elections worked like this, it could actually be considered a reasonably representative democratic electoral system.

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