0 thoughts on “NZ poll graph

  1. Does this suggest NZ is moving closer to Australia, politically? I don’t know much about the National Party, but it seems to be somewhere on the right of Labour, correct? I’m slowly forcing myself (for teaching purposes) to learn about party systems outside Latin America.

  2. This graph brings home what has happened to ACT, NZ First, and United Future: all have become tame captives of a major party. All are now chronically below 5%. All now depend for their survival on their leader borrowing enough votes from a coalition partner to win his local seat, taking advantage of the single-local-seat loophole.

    This is not stable. A captive party loses credibility. In Germany, the Free Democrats solved this problem by playing musical partners at the Land level. In New Zealand, with no provinces, how will these parties survive?

  3. NZF and UF certainly could work with National, so I could not call them captive of any one large party. But it is hard to see UF surviving after Dunne is done (sorry, could not resist). NZF is now in parliament without Peters having won his district; can it stay above 5% (or can Peters win back Tauranga)?

    ACT is very much captive. Greens run that risk, too, though they have been consistently above 5%. They also are taking steps to open up the possibility of working with National. Whether that is credible or not is an open question.

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