22 seats?

Rodger Payne reminds me that I should actually open up that issue of PS that came in the mail recently.

The latest issue of PS includes two different political science studies, using different methodologies, which conclude that the Democrats will pick up 22 seats in the House.

He then adds:

Apparently, the latest polling also suggests a solid Democratic victory — though it seems premature to talk of a “landslide.”

Back in mid-August when the generic polling lead that the Democrats held was 14.65 percentage points, a twenty-two-seat pickup was at the low end of my very different estimation methodology. I suggested it could be as high as 42 (but was more likely to be near the lower end, owing to the diminshed responsiveness of the House electoral system in recent times).

Charles Franklin‘s current (10 Oct.) estimate of the Democratic polling advantage is slightly lower, at 12.8 (although when I eyeball the graph, it looks higher to me than it would have been two months ago, despite a temporary dip in the interim).

As Rodger notes, there is still time for the Republicans to gin up the fear factor: It’s us or the terrorists. They’ll try it, but can it work yet again?

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