Just a quick note here, in that at the very moment that I posted my entry on Chile’s senate election, in came a terrific comment from Miguel Centellas to my previous post on Bolivia. In the comment, Miguel notes that Evo Morales is almost certainly the Condorcet loser (i.e., would lose to any other candidate in a head-to-head contest). How timely of Miguel to bring up the Condorcet matter in this context, given the extensive discussion of Condorcet (also triggered by a comment to a previous post) that was carried out here in the past week.
I certainly agree that Morales is the Condorcet loser. Will Congress really ratify his plurality? The congressional runoff process is designed for nothing if not to prevent a Condorcet loser from becoming president.
Also, I should note that I failed in my previous post on Bolivia to note that Miguel believes Evo Morales’s actual support in the election will be lower than the polls suggest, because the polls do not seek to determine who is a likely voter. That may well be, although I will admit to being surprised that Morales’s voters would be less motivated than those of other candidates. I do not know enough about the Bolivian electorate to comment on that, and so I will defer to Miguel–and thank him for planting a seed!